Part 2: Splaining extreme events of 1912 from a climate perspective

1912ExtremeWeather

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As stated in Part 1, this is parody. Such objects of ridicule are many, but I am but one man and have thus selected a single, rich target worthy of mockery in our ongoing war against AGW pseudoscience. Here, I jump into my CliMate-chine to present the NOAATAWL press release regarding extreme weather in 1912 inspired by their 2012 version and channeling the Alarmist’s tone. Cheers!

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Newly-minted propaganda finds evidence of human-caused climate change in half, no, scratch that, all of the 14 EXTREME weather and climate events analyzed from 1912.

September 12, 1913

Listen up. Human influences are having an impact on EXTREME weather and climate events, according to the report “Splaining Extreme Events of 1912 from a Climate Perspective” released today by the Bullshit Artists of the American Meteorological Society. Overall, 18 different opportunistic activist teams from around the world contributed to the pal-reviewed report that examined the causes of 14 extreme events that occurred on five continents and in the Arctic during 1912. Scientists from NOAATAWL served as three of the four lead editors on the report.

The report shows that the effects of natural weather and climate fluctuations played a key role in the intensity and evolution of the 1912 extreme events. However, because it is a mandate that scientists “offer up scary scenarios” and manufacture links where there aren’t any, the spin put on it revealed compelling “evidence” that human-caused climate change, through the emission of heat-trapping gases, also contributed to the extreme events. Kind of like spiced it up a bit, but in a bad way. Like adding hot pepper when you just wanted a little salt…and you hate hot pepper.

“This report adds to a growing self-professed ability to manufacture climate science that untangles the complexities of understanding natural and human-induced factors contributing to specific extreme weather and climate events,” said Thomas R. Karl, L.S.D, director of NOAATAWL’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). “The key was to once again elevate ‘model projections and expert judgment’ above the empirical data that ran counter to our message. Nonetheless, linking extreme events to CO2 remains challenging for two primary reasons. One, it’s all a load of crap. I mean we’ve been claiming it for years now but really we’re just banking on the stupidity of the American people, the hand-wavers, the Inquisitors and so on to keep this shit show afloat. One of our heavies is pushing to have Henry Ford tried for crimes against humanity and we’ve got all manner of deflection planned. But here’s the catch. Number two, turns out the American people aren’t as stupid as we expected. On a related note, I think I just shat myself. Excuse me.”

In addition to investigating the causes of these extreme events, the multiple analyses of all of the events allowed the pseudoscientists to compare and contrast the strengths and weaknesses of their various methods of analysis. Despite the fact that they “just kinda made it up” as they went along, there was considerable agreement between the assessments of the same events because the results were provided to the teams in advance. Think GCM and spaghetti graph.

Thomas Peterson, Ph.D., principal scientist at NOAATAWL’s NCDC and one of the lead editors on the report, said, “You’d be surprised at how creative scientists can get. Let a bunch of teams loose on finding a way to link extreme weather with the horseless buggy and you get all kind of zany ideas to connect the dots, but connect the dots they did in every case. Actually, correction. One of the teams said they couldn’t find a link no matter how they tortured the data…we replaced them. Woot! Woot! [laughing fit that goes on for 7 full minutes] Sorry. Seriously though, we had been saying things like, ‘In a warmer world one would expect dot dot dot’ but now we’ve gone global to back our claims and the consensus has never been stronger. Really, we just never got around to it. Finally I was just like, ‘All in favor of saying we found the human fingerprint every time say aye’ and bam, the rest is history. It’s very cool.”

Key findings include:

1912 Bringing the Heat — Drought, Record Temperatures, Heat Waves 

Scientists found…all right, it’s just us. It’s a press release after all. We found that the prolonged drought in Niger and Australia can be mainly explained by natural atmospheric dynamics, but, as we’re wont to do, we declared that human-induced climate change was a factor in the magnitude of warmth and was found to have affected the likelihood of such droughts. It’s like 50 times more likely now.

And it’s worse than we thought. The drought in the Philippines is likely to be assessed as “the severest ever observed in the archipelago.” Did you hear about Tuguegarao? No? How’d you miss it? Anyway, also in the Philippines. April 29th, 1912. 108 degrees! Record high for Oceania. Nuff said. And Boston had it’s longest heat wave of all time leading to an offensive outbreak of sweaty Bostonians. “It’s frikkin wicked hot out,” said a boy wearing a wool scally cap selling newspapers. Bottom line: they were a whole lot sweatier (95% certainty) due to human-caused climate change. Models don’t lie.

Humungo Super Typhoon, Epic Floods and Soaked Scots:

The record-setting impacts of Humungo Super Typhoon in Southeast Asia were largely attributable to the massive storm surge and resulting inundation from the onshore-directed storm path. However, climate-change related increases in sea level (as to be distinguished from the far more rapid rises in sea level that have been taking place for many thousands of years) have nearly doubled, no, more than doubled, triple-dog-doubled today’s annual probability of a Humungo Super Typhoon-level flood recurrence as compared to 1850. Ongoing natural and human-induced forcing of sea level ensures that Humungo Super Typhoon-level inundation events will occur more frequently in the future from storms with less intensity and lower storm surge than Humungo Super Typhoon. It was horrific losing 100,000 Chinese to Yangtze floods in 1911, but the famine that followed in 1912 was even worse as millions faced starvation, a blow made even worse by further flooding in 1912 and the loss of 50,000 more Chinese to Humungo Super Typhoon (that’s like half of Cambridge).

Chances of such severity being caused by natural variability alone? The data says 100% but that’s passé. The consensus allows those old geeky physicist types who hang their hats on empirical data to be dismissed. They are living in the past. Our models can see the future and the models say zero chance. Resistance is futile. Include the epic flooding of the Mississippi River and the record-breaking precipitation in the UK and a pattern emerges where any extreme weather event can by fiat be claimed to have been impacted by human activity. Try it. Here watch.

The record-high amount of rainfall in the United Kingdom in 1912 was largely the result of natural variability. However, there is evidence that rainfall totals are influenced by increases in sea surface temperature and atmospheric moisture which may be linked to human influences on climate. The likelihood of above-average precipitation was found to have increased by 5 percent to 15 percent because of human influences on the climate from increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and is brought even higher to 50 percent due to the positive feedback built into our models. See how easy that is.

Arctic sea ice, Titanic loss, Niagara freezes over, north winds bwoh, south winds bwoh

The “unprecedentedly warm” temperatures experienced throughout the Arctic in 1912 resulted in dramatic melting of the already younger, thin “dirty” ice and formation of iceberg flotillas that calved off of Western Greenland glaciers. “Unusually large numbers” of bergs were driven by “unusual [read: human-caused] northerly and northwesterly winds [that] have blown these bergs far to the southward”…and straight into the course of the Titanic. Yes, extreme weather made for extreme conditions on her maiden voyage and again we found the hand of man in the disaster that ensued. This event cannot be explained by natural variability alone. Summer Arctic sea ice extent will continue to decrease in the future, and is expected to be largely absent by mid-century. As predicted, climate change in a warming world can yield extremes of every kind and such was the case with the human-amplified brutal cold wave that gripped the U.S. in the early months of 1912 killing scores and causing untold damage. Niagara Falls actually froze over! Extreme? Yes. Natural? Well, yes but our fingerprints are all over it too. Trust us. We’re not like the others. Remember the Stantons!

U.S. Tornado Outbreak and Katmai Beheaded:

OK, so linking tornadoes and volcanic eruptions to human-caused climate change seemed in the past near impossible, but the events of 1912 forced our hand and we could no longer sit on the sidelines. Never let a serious crisis go to waste, right? The April 1912 tornado outbreak sequence spawned over 100 tornadoes and killed over 100 Americans. Chew on that a minute but swallow cuz there’s more. Nearly two months to the day after the outbreak ended, Canada experienced its deadliest tornado ever, an F4 monster named the Regina Cyclone, less than one year after Canada suffered its deadliest wildfire with the Great Porcupine Fire of 1911.

It was long-predicted that the Corn Belt would migrate north as the world continues to warm due to human-caused climate change, but we can now say with 173.22% confidence that the Tornado Belt will migrate and expand north as well. You know the routine by now. Yeah the tornadoes can be mainly explained by natural atmospheric dynamics, but we declared that human-induced climate change was a factor yada yada yada. In our paper we garnish the presults with sciency-sounding stuff, but this about sums it up.

Anyway, 1912 also delivered one of the largest volcanic eruptions in modern history. For 2-1/2 days Novarupta blasted away, decapitating Mount Katmai in the process of birthing a volcano and caldera. The Earth is eating itself! Though there is some uncertainty, our projections indicate that Earth will completely devour itself by the year 1938 if the pressures exerted upon it by human activity are not eased. The 25-year countdown begins…now.

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Part 1: Warmist AGW “weather extreme” meme trudges forward—human fingerprint on half of the 2012 extreme weather events NCDC studied

DrKarl

For starters, this is parody, so deal with it. That means you Dr. Karl. I’ll stop when AGW pseudoscientists stop. This is a primer for my next post where I jump into my CliMate-chine to present the NOAATAWL press release regarding extreme weather from a century ago. The post was prompted when last Friday, September 5th, NOAA’s NCDC connected the dots again releasing their paper explaining they had found that human-caused climate change was a factor in a full half of the 2012 extreme weather events they studied. I read the press release as well as lead editor Thomas Peterson’s “event attribution” Q&A. Here’s a gem he offered up:

The fact that we may get somewhat different answers using different techniques is to be expected. We don’t want all the answers to be exactly the same. We want people to use different models to come up with somewhat different results because this range allows us to put a fudge factor, or reasonable boundaries, on how literally we should interpret any specific assessment of an event.

You’d have thought that Peterson would have gotten the memo to axe “fudge factor” from the lexicon post-HARRY_READ_ME  and Climategate. Nonetheless, the headline, lead and extreme weather map combined to give off that old and malodorous AGW air, well mixed with presupposition and pomposity. In other words more ‘model projections and expert judgment’ on display.

I downloaded but couldn’t bring myself to read the paper knowing its more of the same crap we’ve already been fed. Seriously, do I really need to go further than Peterson’s out-of-the-gate answer to the first Q&A question?

As the planet warms due to greenhouse gases, there are a lot of other changes going on in the climate system. So if you just look at warming, it’s a lot more limiting than if you look at all the other changes that humans are causing as well—for example, increases in heavy precipitation.

This same cadre and its cohorts have been beating the extreme weather drum for quite some time, elevating themselves to the role of prospective geoengineers and stating matter-of-factly that “Earth’s climate is warming, and destructive weather is growing more prevalent.” And you knew they weren’t going to let this one go until they “validated” their theory. This latest report is just another stepping stone on their path to claiming a human fingerprint in almost all extreme weather events. As such, it is worthy of mockery and finger-pointing, as I will oblige in my follow-up post.

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“Look at all this dirty ice you made.”

As a follow-up to my last post, National Geographic inspired me to look into my crystal ball and envision a more likely scene come the year 25,550 (more likely than 216 feet of sea level rise that is). Behold Lady Liberty of the 25th Millennium!

LibertyBuried25K

I had to restrain myself from adding an Al Goresicle into the ice wall or in the foreground “Shining” style. In any event, if Vostok is any indication, I’d say by the year 25K there’s a better chance this serendipitous little interglacial could very well have withered and New York could once again be under ice. At least we can take comfort in knowing that our best and brightest are already on the monumental task of geoengineering our way out of this (I gotta do it):

How come you do not agree with a statement that says we are no where [sic] close to knowing where energy is going or whether clouds are changing to make the planet brighter. We are not close to balancing the energy budget. The fact that we can not account for what is happening in the climate system makes any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not! It is a travesty!

I know I have referred to it frequently but it’s my favorite Trenberth quote of all time. My guess is that Kevin Trenberth M (as in the 1000th) will be there to tell us that the ice sheet is a product of global warming as predicted by his great-to-the-thousandth grand pappy. Maybe I should have inserted a protestor holding up a sign reading “THIS IS THE FACE OF GLOBAL WARMING!” I do wonder what our resident soothsayers will be predicting then, or do you think they’ll just be playing the role of annoying chastiser at that point?

If you had just listened to the Oracles of the Venerable Climate League we would still have plenty of oil to keep our arses warm! Look at all this dirty ice you made. Are you gonna slice open that tauntaun or what?

Nah. My guess is the “Age of the Alarmist” will be scarcely referenced at that point, and even then only as a supreme example of the follies of Inquisitorial pseudoscience. Here’s another prediction that I’m really hoping you can bank on: this will all be a bad memory by 2030. And incidentally we’ll owe it all to Liberty.

We are currently on this precipice of greatness yet so many forces connive to keep humanity from elevating as a mass to a place where much of our present suffering becomes just a bad memory as well. We can and will work it out and we’ll have Liberty to thank. I can feel it, a national Howard Beale moment on the horizon that will go global. It is beyond time we flex our might and shake off these bothersome fleas that aim to dictate our every move, from where we can live to what we can eat to what personal level of “climate debt” is owed by each of us and on and on.

From showerhead to headset to whatever other headache they want to throw in our way, they want every part of you, cataloged and controlled. But they screwed up. They overreached, tremendously so, and the incursion upon our inalienable rights does literally threaten our opportunity to achieve Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. They so soon forget the Shot Heard Round the World and that’s a big mistake. See, more and more of us are mad as hell and we’re loaded for bear. This Second American Revolution, this Slap Heard Round the World is soon to reverberate from sea to shining sea.

Sorry. All this talk of Liberty gets the brain boiling. I do in my heart believe America will lead the way again. I preach it often I know, but Liberty is our foundation, it’s what makes America such a special place. It is in our blood and we will not shy away from fighting to maintain its course. It will be a long, hard slog, but we’re here to take our power back. Shoo! Usurpers be gone. We adults who haven’t bought real estate in Newtopia have important grown-up work to do so be on your way now. That’s right. Keep going. Keep going. Shut and bar the door. Buy-bye.

I raise my glass to Liberty in all her forms. Cheers!

galileonardo
“I have not yet begun to fight.”

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My letter to National Geographic regarding Liberty – no “leap of faith” needed

Well, I guess it took me longer than I thought it would to swing back round here. Life intercedes, but that’s a good thing (to a degree). Regardless, I’m back for the moment at least. Back on August 20th Anthony Watts posted an article regarding National Geographic’s Junk Science where he determined it could take 23.5K-plus years to sink the Statue of Liberty waist-deep under RISING SEAS!!! commented on the article and also offered my letter to NG Editor Chris Johns. Jeff Alberts suggested offering it as a separate post (and a correction to a typo – thanks!) so here it is.

NG_RisingSeas_LibertyCover2

[As I mentioned in my initial post, I know they would never publish it in part or in full (the lead paragraph offers a nice synopsis though), but I feel better for having sent it. Needed to get some of that off my chest…again.]

Contents:

The irony is fathoms deep in your ‘alarming’ ”Rising Seas” cover depicting the Statue of Liberty half-submerged in the Atlantic, a fantasy piece of such low probability that even the most climate-anxious scientists agree such an outcome would be several millennia away. The only true threat to Liberty is immediate and comes in the form of the relentless surge offered by overzealous propagandists who enthrone the political dictates of activist post-modern pseudoscience to implement an open agenda that aims to control and punish humanity.

Under the guise of the innocuous-sounding Sustainable Development banner, this edict to de-develop developed nations and cripple the growth of developing nations will do nothing to affect climate but much to promote poverty, wealth destruction, loss of national sovereignty, energy and resource rationing, restriction of property rights, further environmental degradation, and a general continued withering of Liberty.

Perhaps National Geographic could turn its attention upon that global phenomenon instead of wasting any more of its valuable pages advocating a misguided political and economic philosophy anchored in anti-science, anti-human sentiment, and above all else, abject failure. It is far beyond time that your once-proud society returned to its roots in the scientific method. What passes now for climate ‘science,’ and specifically those issues concerning attribution, is nothing more than a falsely heralded consensus of unfalsifiable ignorance. Even more objectionable is the wanton promotion of this manufactured consensus as robust and unequivocal. It is a farce and a dishonor to those who established the long-standing scientific principles that, like our Liberty, wither as a result. Richard Feynman is rolling in his grave.

One must look no farther than page 127 of the “Rising Seas” issue to understand at least a small portion of what is at play here in the article by Hannah Bloch titled “Failure Is an Option.” She says:

Scientific researchers are reluctant to own up publicly to flops. Reputations and future funding depend on perceptions of success.

Indeed, but the stakes in this case are so much higher than the simple protection of a funding stream, by several orders of magnitude in fact. What is at stake is no less than Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness. That is no exaggeration when one objectively considers the reality that would be delivered through Sustainable Development.

Before continuing down that road, I did want to also touch upon the Editor’s Note, Sea Change, by Chris Johns. I surmise he was speaking tongue-in-cheek when he said “A catastrophe is playing out in slow motion.” Certainly true Mr. Johns, though not quite as slowly as I’d like. And there is in fact a man-made catastrophe unfolding, we agree, just not the same catastrophe. Yours is a crystal-ball catastrophe comprised of many a could, maybe or might. Mine is a crystal clear catastrophe-in-the-making equating to economic suicide. As [if on] cue you added this:

Because there are no computer models or scientists to tell us with certainty how fast and how much the seas will rise, it is a challenge to illustrate this story and telegraph the problem’s urgency. You could say it requires a leap of faith in imagination that is grounded in fact.

Can I translate?

I confess that the entropic nature of climate requires the concession of great uncertainty, or as Kevin Trenberth put it privately, “We are not close to balancing the energy budget,” but this will not keep us from using scare-mongering imagery and uncorrelated circumstances to foster anxiety regarding the rise in sea level that has been occurring for millennia and will continue to occur until nature flips the switch back to the next age of glaciation. Despite our knowledge that mitigation will be far costlier than adaptation in regards to efficacy, environment, and economy, we are forging ahead with the mitigation agenda regardless. To keep this agenda on course we must continue to “offer up scary scenarios” and ignore the empirical evidence that points more and more strongly toward natural variability with each passing year. We choose to instead substitute empirical evidence with model-based projection that hinges upon a leap of faith in imagination rather than a foundation in sound science.

I know it is an editorial page with a statement by a photojournalist, but regurgitating unscientific phrases such as “ever more destructive storms” and a “leap of faith in imagination” is an insult to your readership. I am willing to bet that your audience is a far more skeptical bunch than you are willing to concede. Matters as contentious as anthropogenic global warming are best presented from a balanced rather than biased viewpoint, and the attempted stifling of dissent that has been the cornerstone of AGW proponents is a wholly unscientific endeavor that must be abandoned. National Geographic could lead the way were it to choose to do so, and, were it to do so, would assist in restoring faith in modern science tarnished by the stain of activist climate science.

Finally, to lend weight to my previous statements of fact, not conspiracy, regarding the impact of Sustainable Development, I offer figures derived by the UN, its chief promoter. If we continue upon this deviant course instead of the natural course we were following (the UN termed it the Golden Economic Age), by the year 2100 the global GDP will have contracted by $200 trillion ($350 trillion vs. $550 trillion). That equates to a 40% decrease in per capita income for developed countries and a 50% decrease in per capita income for developing countries. Read that again. Eighty percent of humanity lives in developing countries and this agenda aims to cut their projected wealth in half. Please keep that in mind whenever you hear it parroted that these efforts are primarily meant to help the poor. They do the exact opposite and instead will ensure that poverty is unforgivably sustained for the world’s poorest. I conclude with my earlier premise that those propagating this agenda wish only to control and punish humanity. When enough people awaken to that reality, this backward opposition to humanity’s natural course of development, this Golden Economic Age, will be swept aside. My advice to you is to join us to that end, or step aside.

Sincerely,
Galileonardo Marshall Warren (an homage to the physicians of H. Pylori fame)

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RIO+20=PAIN

Well, RIO+20 wrapped up this past Friday and what better time to get this blog going. I had signed up back in March when I finally realized I had been banned from commenting on Media Matters for America but I’ll save that bizarre story for another day.

Back to the business at hand. I had read the RIO+20 Final Pre-Conference Draft and, having studied the Sustainable Development “movement” for a while now, I was inspired by CFACT’s turn of phrase to redesign the draft’s spiffy cover. It seems they left their logo in an unfinished state so I was happy to finish it off for them. I even offered up a new U.N. logo I hope they enjoy. I do believe my depiction is a more accurate reflection of what these folks have in store for us despite all of the new flowery language in the report concerning “poverty eradication” with visions of sugar plums and mandated green economies.

I am preparing a PDF that elaborates on the message of my cover piece (largely a dolled-up retread of my piece on The Air Vent since not much has changed other than their current “no really, we’re trying to help you” misguided PR campaign), but that could be a while. So for now, I just wanted to share the new-and-improved cover since it seemed timely. Enjoy.

H/T to WUWT and CFACT for keeping the torch lit, though pitchforks may be in order as well at some point. Speaking of which, Mr. Watts, Rothbard, Rucker, please feel free to use the revised RIO+20 image I made at will (including making it your own by cloning out my address at the bottom). The more people hear our messages of opposition to the Sustainable Misery agenda, the better. And the clearer we make that message, hopefully, the wider it will resonate. Cheers!

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